How Miami Dolphins free agent pickups have played compared with players the team bypassed

Miami Dolphins fans have years of experience bemoaning the team’s high-priced offseason acquisitions (Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerby, Josh Sitton) and stewing over the better/healthier/cheaper players that were bypassed in free agency.

That’s happening less so now.

Yes, there was the regrettable signing of running back Jordan Howard. And Byron Jones’ metrics haven’t been as good as hoped and Ereck Flowers has allowed too many sacks.

But none of the signings - aside from Howard - has been a disaster, and Miami’s pickups (especially Emmanuel Ogbah) have contributed to the Dolphins’ 7-4 record.

With the benefit of hindsight, a look at the Dolphins’ major free-agent decisions last spring, what players they passed up, and how it has all worked out:

▪ Running back: Let’s start with the only glaringly bad decision. Miami wanted a veteran back before the draft and opted for Howard, who was a non-factor (28 carries, 33 yards) before the sides parted ways. Miami paid him nearly $5 million for his work.

Then they traded a fifth-rounder for Matt Breida, who has averaged just 3.6 per carry, down from 5.0 in his career entering this season.

The Dolphins’ other notable free agent options in March - all of which have been better than Howard but none of which have been extraordinary this season - were Todd Gurley (one year, $6 million with Atlanta; 610 yards rushing and 3.7 yards per carry average) or Melvin Gordon (two year, $16 million with Denver; 4.1 average and 554 yards rushing) or Adrian Peterson (one year, $2.3 million with Detroit and averaging 3.7 yards per carry with 444 rushing yards) or even Frank Gore, who wanted to return here and is averaging 3.7 yards per carry (521 yards rushing) while playing on a one-year, $1 million deal with the Jets.

Though Gordon was linked to Miami, an associate said the Dolphins never aggressively courted him. And though he would have helped, his Denver deal comes with a $9 million cap number next season that would not have been appealing to Miami.

Leonard Fournette didn’t become available on waivers until Aug. 31; he signed a one-year, $3.5 million deal with Tampa and has just 271 rushing yards on 3.9 per carry.

The good news: Miami smartly claimed rookie Salvon Ahmed (4.2 per carry) off waivers from San Francisco on Aug. 26. (He’s likely missing a second game in a row on Sunday with a shoulder injury.)

In retrospect, the Dolphins likely should have addressed running back with their third first-round pick or one of their two second-round picks or aggressively pursued undrafted Illinois State running back James Robinson, who has 890 yards rushing on 4.6 per carry for the Jaguars. Running back assuredly will be addressed in the 2021 draft.

▪ Center: Ted Karras hasn’t allowed a sack all season, has been a steadying influence on the line and team leader and has been a very good value at one year and $3 million. Karras has made a strong case to return in 2021.

By contrast, Daniel Kilgore, cut by the Dolphins after last season, has started three games for the Chiefs and his play has been uneven.

The other clear-cut starting options in free agency were much more expensive: Connor McGovern (three years, $27 million from the Jets) and Graham Glasgow (four years, $44 million with Denver).

Among 36 centers, Pro Football Focus ranks Karras 19th and McGovern 29th.

Glasgow is playing guard for Denver and PFF ranks him 24th among guards. The Karras signing ultimately was a win.

▪ Offensive tackle: Chris Grier and Brian Flores had a major decision in March: Give big money to tackles Jack Conklin (got three years, $42 million from Cleveland) or Brian Bulaga (three years, $30 million from the Chargers) or Halapoulivaati Vaitai (five years, $50 million with Detroit) or George Fant (three years, $27 million) or commit to finding offensive tackles in the draft.

The Dolphins went the rookie route and that was justified.

Rookies Austin Jackson and Rob Hunt are cheap and at the very least competent with potential to be long-term starters, though growth clearly is needed.

As for the veterans bypassed by Miami, PFF ranks Conklin 11th, Fant 48th and Bulaga 55th, while Vaitai has been hindered all season by a foot injury.

PFF rates Hunt 72nd and Jackson 73rd among 78 qualifying tackles but the two rookies haven’t seemed overwhelmed, either.

Would Conklin have been worth the investment? Perhaps.

But at some point, the Dolphins needed to address both tackle spots in the draft and Jackson (who has allowed 27 pressures but just three sacks) and Hunt have shown enough to be cautiously optimistic.

▪ Offensive guard: The decision to sign Flowers (three years, $30 million) has worked out OK; he has allowed four sacks (only three NFL tackles have permitted more) and graded out middle of the pack (43rd of 82 guards, per PFF). But coaches rave about his leadership and praise how he has played. He’s an upgrade but needs to be more consistent.

Flowers was ultimately better value than the Saints’ Andrus Peat (five years, $57.5 million); Peat has allowed two sacks and PFF rates him 45th among guards.

Interestingly, the player who replaced Flowers in Washington - Wes Schweitzer - signed for less than half the money (three years, $13.5 million) and has been better than Flowers, according to PFF, which ranks Schweitzer 17th.

A cheaper option would have been Greg Van Wroten (three years, $10.5 million with the Jets). He has allowed two sacks and PFF ranks him 40th.

▪ Defensive ends/outside linebackers/edge rushers: With eight sacks, Ogbah (two year, $15 million) has been the best value of any 2020 free agent defensive end - though PFF rates him slightly below average (62nd of 106 qualifying edge players) against the run.

Shaq Lawson (three years, $30 million) has been decent: 22 tackles, 15 quarterback hits, two sacks and ranked 28th among 106 edge players. He has been an asset against the run, an area where improvement was badly needed.

Miami opted for those two instead of Dante Fowler (three years, $48 million from Atlanta and a disappointment with two sacks), Jason Pierre Paul (two years, $27 million to stay in Tampa and 8.5 sacks, three forced fumbles), Jadeveon Clowney (one year and up to $15 million with Tennessee and no sacks in eight starts), Javon Hargrave (three years, $39 million from Philadelphia; just 1.5 sacks), Vic Beasley (one year, $9.5 million from Tennessee; was a bust and was released), Michael Brockers (three years, $31.5 million to stay with the Rams and 37 tackles, three sacks), Mario Addison (three years, $40.5 million with Buffalo and four sacks and just three starts) and Calais Campbell (acquired by Baltimore from Jacksonville for a fifth rounder and given two year, $27 million deal; has 24 tackles and four sacks).

Of that group, Pierre Paul is the only one who clearly could have helped more than Lawson, and Campbell also would have helped. But Campbell (34) and Pierre Paul (31) are older than the players Miami wanted to build around on defense.

Overall, the Ogbah/Lawson tandem - combined with Andrew Van Ginkel’s emergence - has significantly improved Miami on the edge. Another edge player could be added in the draft.

▪ Inside linebackers: The five best options in free agency in March arguably were Kyle Van Noy (four years, $51 million with Dolphins), Corey Littleton (three years, $36 million with Las Vegas), Joe Schoebert (five years, $53.8 million with Jacksonville), Jamie Collins (three years, $30 million with Detroit) and Blake Martinez (three years, $30 million with the Giants).

Flores had a choice of pursuing one of two former Patriots linebackers (Van Noy or Collins) in March, and he picked Van Noy. PFF ranks Collins 24th and Van Noy 41st and both have been productive.

Van Noy has 47 tackles, 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries.

Collins - who struggled early and has played better recently for a bad Detroit defense - has 82 tackles, a sack, an interception and three forced fumbles.

So Van Noy over Collins has worked out fine. Van Noy also has been better than Littleton (74th). Schoebert (rated 60th by PFF) has 93 tackles.

Martinez, rated 11th by PFF, has been better than Van Noy; he has 101 tackles, two sacks and an interception. He also would have been cheaper than Van Noy. But we’re not suggesting Van Noy was a mistake; he wasn’t. He’s one of the reasons this defense is better.

▪ Cornerbacks: Miami gave five years and $82.5 million to Byron Jones, who has no interceptions and a disappointing 105.7 passer rating in his coverage area. The pass defense was a mess during the two games he missed, but he’s not remotely as impactful as Xavien Howard, who has seven interceptions and a 50.3 passer rating in his coverage area.

Bottom line is you would like to see more impact plays from Jones.

Jones’ overall numbers this season: 28 for 44 for 374 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

By comparison, here are the passer ratings (from worst to best, defensively) against other prominent cornerbacks signed last spring: 126.6 against Chris Harris (two years, $20 million from Chargers and missed seven games with a foot injury), 121.1 against Josh Norman (one year, $6 million from Buffalo), 105.2 against Desmond Trufant (two years, $21 million from Detroit), 99.8 against Ronald Darby (one year, $4 million with Washington), 96.1 against MacKensie Alexander (one year, $4 million with Bengals), 95.4 against Bradley Roby (three years, $36 million from Houston and now suspended six games for using a banned substance), 68.7 against James Bradberry (three years, $45 million from Giants and three interceptions), 63.2 against Kendall Fuller (four years, $40 million from Washington and has four interceptions) and 63.1 against Baushaud Breeland (one year, $3 million from Chiefs and two interceptions since missing the first four games after violating the league’s substance abuse policy).

Cincinnati gave a three-year, $42 million deal to Trae Waynes and he hasn’t played this season because of a pectoral injury.

Miami could have signed Logan Ryan, who wanted big money and settled for one year and $7.5 million from the Giants. He has started 10 games at safety and has a 93.4 passer rating in his coverage area.

From that group, Fuller and Bradberry have been the best value - half the price of Jones and more productive than Jones this season. The Chiefs’ Breeland has been very productive but off field questions scared away teams in free agency.

If you’re the Dolphins, you would rather have Jones than Waynes, Harris and Trufant.

Jones is a good player, and Miami feels better with him opposite Howard than they would with most cornerbacks. But you would also like Jones to become more of a ball-hawk with that contract; regrettably, he doesn’t have an interception in nearly three seasons as a cornerback, including the previous two years with Dallas.

Here’s my Friday piece with updates on the injury status Tua Tagovailoa and four running backs and Todd McShay’s draft advice to the Dolphins, plus more.

Here’s my Friday Hurricanes piece on news of UM being very much in the mix for five talented players, including a quarterback.