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Stock market today: Apple pulls down Nasdaq, while Dow hits record close with Fed rate cut on the horizon

Stocks traded mixed on Monday, with tech names struggling ahead of a crucial week dominated by expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut in four years.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell about 0.5%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up more than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.5%, after strong weekly wins for the major stock gauges. A 6% surge in Intel (INTC) stock helped push the Dow to a record high close of 41,622.08.

Elsewhere, techs were under pressure as Apple (AAPL) shares lost ground amid concerns about iPhone 16 sales. The megacap's stock was down about 3% following analysts' findings that early demand for the recently updated smartphone is lagging 2023 levels.

More broadly, stocks are diverging amid rising bets that the Fed will opt for a more drastic 50 basis point cut in its monetary policy decision on Wednesday at the end of its two-day meeting.

The central bank is almost universally expected to bring in the first US rate cut in four years — a significant policy shift and an official end to a years-long tightening campaign designed to tamp down inflation.

Read more: Fed predictions for 2024: What experts say about the possibility of a rate cut

That conviction has put investors on edge over how aggressively the Fed will lower rates, whether by 0.5% or 0.25%. A half-point move would aim to protect the labor market and reduce the risk of recession but would also risk spooking investors by signaling a dire economic outlook.

As of Monday, traders are pricing in a 63% chance of an outsized move, compared with 30% a week ago. The odds of a 25 basis point cut stand at 37%, per the CME FedWatch tool.

In other corporate news, Boeing (BA) shares were down about 1% and touched a 52-week trading low as the plane-maker implements a hiring freeze and is considering temporary furloughs amid a major strike of 33,000 of its factory workers, which began last week.

LIVE COVERAGE IS OVER11 updates
  • Intel surge leads Dow to record high

    A 6% surge in Intel (INTC) stock helped push the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) to a record high close of 41,622.08.

    Intel (INTC) stock popped after the Biden Administration awarded Intel $3 billion for national security-related chip production. After the closing bell, Intel's shares rose another 9% following news the chip manufacturer is extending collaboration with AWS.

    The company said in a release it will produce an AI fabric chip for AWS.

    Below is a look at how all 30 of the Dow components performed on Monday as the index pushed to a record high.

    Source: Yahoo Finance
    Source: Yahoo Finance
  • Microsoft ramps up AI technology in productivity software

    Microsoft (MSFT) shares were roughly flat as the company announced its piling more more of its AI-powered Copilot technology into its Microsoft 365 productivity products, including Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, and Teams.

    Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley reports:

    The updates, which include the ability to use Copilot to draft PowerPoint presentations and a feature that prioritizes your emails in Outlook, are a part of what the tech giant refers to as its Copilot Wave 2 rollout.

    In addition to the improvements to its Microsoft 365 apps, Microsoft also announced a new collaborative tool called Copilot Pages, which lets teams of workers access, edit, and manipulate data on a single page using information pulled from Copilot.

    The company also debuted a new agent builder option that lets users easily create Copilot-powered agents, AI assistants designed to automate and executive business processes.

    The moves are all a part of Microsoft’s broader efforts to infuse its vast portfolio of business software products with AI capabilities as it seeks to outpace rivals in the space, ranging from Google (GOOG, GOOGL) to Salesforce (CRM), and monetize its enormous investments in AI technology.

    Microsoft says the number of customers using Copilot increased more than 60% quarter over quarter and that the number of people who use it daily at work doubled. What’s more, the Windows maker says Vodafone is purchasing 68,000 Copilot licenses for its 100,000 employees after it found that the software helped workers save an average of three hours per week per person.

    The new Copilot features for Microsoft’s 365 apps are all designed to help improve worker efficiency, whether that means tracking meeting transcripts and chats to make it easier to catch up or quickly adding references to documents, PDFs, and emails in a Word document.

  • 60/40 index is back at an all time high

    After reports of the death of the classic diversified 60-40 portfolio in 2023, the strategy is officially back in 2024.

    Bloomberg's global 60/40 index, which tracks a global portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, closed last week at fresh all-time weekly high. And, as seen in our chart of the day, the index has been ripping for most of 2024.

    Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon pointed out in an X post on Monday that Bloomberg's aggregate total return bond index is up more than 10% over the past 12 months, marking one of the index's highest yearly returns in the past 20 years.

    Perhaps this is another sign that it's more than just AI stocks working at this stage of the bull market.

  • The market is ready for a 50 basis point interest rate cut

    The debate about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points continues to heat up.

    There's been a prevailing thought over the past month, which we've noted before, that if the central bank does opt for the larger of the two interest rate cut scenarios, it could prompt panic in markets.

    But markets are all about expectations. Panic usually comes when something unexpected happens. As of Monday, markets were pricing in a 59% chance the Fed opts for a 50 basis point interest cut on Wednesday, per the CME FedWatch tool.

    So if the market is pricing in a 50 basis point interest rate cut, it's hard to argue that's going to spring outright panic.

    "I think the Fed would be reluctant to surprise the market," Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti told Yahoo Finance.

    And, in fact, since the market is already leaning toward a 50 basis point cut on Wednesday, one could argue the Fed would actually be tightening policy by only slashing rates by 25 basis points.

    "Unless something changes, going 25 will tighten financial market conditions, pushing interest rates up," Renaissance Macro's head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients on Monday morning. "Monetary policy works through the financial markets. Tighter financial conditions should be avoided when the balance of risks between growth and inflation have shifted as they have now. If the downside risks to employment outweigh the upside risks to inflation, then the Fed should be leaning against tightening financial conditions, all else equal."

  • Fed's battle against inflation has reached 'important turning point': Lael Brainard

    The White House Monday said an “important turning point” has been reached in the three-year battle against the surge in inflation and that it’s important to protect progress in the job market.

    “Inflation is coming back down close to normal levels, and it is important to safeguard the important labor market progress we have made,” Lael Brainard, director of President Biden’s National Economic Council, said in a speech before the Council on Foreign Relations.

    Her comments come as the Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates this week for the first time in four years, as officials have declared they’ve gained confidence inflation is coming back down to their 2% target and that attention is shifting to a cooling labor market.

    Fed Chair Jay Powell said in his last speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., in late August that the Fed “will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.” He noted that the Fed does not "seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions" and that the current level of the policy rate gives the Fed “ample room” to lower rates in response to any weakening in the job market.

    Brainard said the administration’s policies to assist in supply chain bottlenecks and address commodities price spikes, coupled with a commitment to respect the Fed’s independence, has helped bring inflation back down.

    “This was an important contrast to [Biden’s] predecessor, who repeatedly criticized Federal Reserve monetary policy during the previous administration,” Brainard said.

    Brainard underscored the administration’s policies and work to address affordability challenges, including housing by building millions of new affordable homes and providing incentives for states and localities to remove outdated obstacles to building. She also emphasized the importance of expanding the labor force by subsidizing costly childcare and investing in clean energy, semiconductors, and AI to create jobs.

    "This is very different from an approach that would weaken our economy by undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve and the rule of law, add trillions to the debt, and impose what amounts to a sales tax of $4,000 on middle-class families,” she said.

  • Stocks remain mixed ahead of Fed rate cut decision

    Stocks continued to send mixed signals on Monday afternoon as tech names struggled ahead of a major Fed decision on interest rate cuts.

    The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.8%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.3%. Last week, the major gauges posted strong weekly wins. But investors this week are preoccupied with the Fed's upcoming decision to lower interest rates, with uncertainty over how large the cut will be.

  • Stocks trending in morning trading

    Here are some of the stocks leading Yahoo Finance’s trending tickers page during morning trading on Monday:

    Apple (AAPL): Shares of the tech giant slid more than 2% in morning trading Monday following a burst of analyst reports that suggested early demand for Cupertino's latest smartphone, iPhone 16, is lagging behind the release of last year's model around the same time period.

    Intel (INTC): Shares of the technology company rose Monday morning following a Bloomberg report that the chip giant will receive up to $3.5 billion in funding to make chips for the Defense Department. This would be in addition to the billions the company was awarded under the Chips and Science Act.

    Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT, DJTWW): Shares of Trump's media company moved lower during morning trading after reports of a second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. The Republican presidential candidate confirmed he is "safe" in a campaign email. The FBI is conducting an investigation while the suspected gunman is now in custody.

    Bausch + Lomb (BLCO (BLCO): Shares of the eye-care company rose more than 4% following a report that it is considering a sale to disentangle itself from its parent company. The Financial Times reported on Friday that Bausch + Lomb is working with Goldman Sachs to search for potential buyers and gauge interest. Parent company Bausch Health owns the majority of Bausch + Lomb's shares.

  • Zillow stock gains as Wedbush raises price target and rating

    Wedbush has adjusted its outlook on Zillow (Z), increasing the price target to $80 from the previous $50, and upgrading its rating on the stock to Outperform from Neutral.

    Shares were up more than 3% Monday morning.

    The analyst, Jay McCanless, in a research note attributed his increased confidence to lower mortgage rates providing a “positive catalyst” for Zillow’s core brokerage business.

    Mortgage rates have slid in recent months, hitting their lowest level in over a year as investors anticipate rate cuts from the Fed this month. The central bank will issue its next policy decision on Wednesday.

    And there’s also potential for further declines as the Fed prepares to start a new cycle of interest rate cuts this week, which could continue into next year. Lower borrowing costs would help with affordability.

    Additionally, according to McCanless, the company’s software and services offerings, a segment of Zillow’s residential division, "have enabled total revenue to grow at a pace surpassing the national existing home market for several quarters."

    McCanless raised his fiscal 2025 revenue growth forecast for the residential segment to 17% from 12.5% and doubled his rental revenue growth estimate to 10% from 5%, citing new apartment construction.

  • Fed to enter new era with first rate cut in 4 years Wednesday. What comes next?

    When the Federal Reserve meets Wednesday, officials are expected to mark the end of an era as they cut interest rates for the first time in four years and chart a course for lower rates over the next two years, reports Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger.

    “This is a big meeting,” said former Kansas City Fed president Esther George. “It’s one that’s been foreshadowed since late last year. It’s long been expected.”

    The central bank is expected to lower rates by a quarter percentage point to a new range of 5.0%-5.25% from its 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% on Wednesday when the policy meeting concludes. The actions will officially mark the termination of the most aggressive inflation-fighting campaign since the 1980s.

    Investors' bets on how deeply the Fed will cut rates for the first time have been fluctuating widely. As of Monday morning, traders were pricing in a 61% chance of a reduction of 50 basis points, versus 39% for 25 basis points. The odds were split 50-50 on Friday, compared with an 85% backing for the smaller cut a week or so ago.

    The rate cut will mark the first in a series of cuts, as the central bank's new era of easy money is expected to last through 2025 and 2026. That shift will ripple through the US economy by making it cheaper for Americans to borrow what they need to buy houses, cars, and credit card purchases.

  • Apple stock falls 2% following reports on early demand for iPhone 16

    Apple stock slid more than 2% in morning trading Monday following a burst of analyst reports that suggested early demand for the company's latest smartphone, iPhone 16, is lagging behind the release of last year's model around the same time period.

    The Street reported findings from Citigroup, Jefferies, and TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo that indicated demand for the AI-capable phone is softer than 2023 levels.

    Kuo, who has accurately predicted Apple's moves in the past, estimated the first weekend of preorder sales for the iPhone 16 brought in about 37 million units, down nearly 13% from the equivalent weekend of last year's iPhone 15 sales debut. "The key factor is the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series." he wrote in a post on Monday.

    Earlier this year, Kuo authored a report saying iPhone shipments will decline as much as 15% year over year in 2024, owing to a drop in iPhone sales in China coupled with the emergence of generative AI-powered and foldable smartphones, which will put pressure on iPhone sales throughout the year.

    Meanwhile, Jefferies noted that some iPhone 16 models are available for store pickup almost immediately, suggesting softer consumer interest. And Citi pointed to intensifying competition in China and upgrade fatigue as among the factors explaining the weaker demand.

    Apple's newest iPhone model is a key component in the company's AI strategy, which centers on bringing powerful and intuitive new use cases to everyday users. Apple touts its AI platform, Apple Intelligence, as one of the main selling points for its latest phones, as its software will only run on last year’s iPhone 15 Pro or newer models.

    Analysts are banking on that upgrade incentive to reinvigorate iPhone sales and push the stock's value higher.

  • Stocks open mixed as Wall Street anticipates major rate cut

    Stocks traded mixed on Monday, with tech names struggling ahead of a crucial week dominated by expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in four years.

    The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.5%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was little changed after strong weekly wins for the major stock gauges.