Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (TSE:LSPD) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

There's been a notable change in appetite for Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (TSE:LSPD) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 10% to CA$16.56. The results were mixed overall, with revenues slightly ahead of analyst estimates at US$266m. Statutory losses by contrast were 6.7% larger than predictions at US$0.23 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Lightspeed Commerce

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Following the latest results, Lightspeed Commerce's 19 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.10b in 2025. This would be a notable 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 29% to US$0.71. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.10b and losses of US$0.79 per share in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Lightspeed Commerce'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a notable improvement in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

The average price target held steady at CA$29.11, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Lightspeed Commerce, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$36.26 and the most bearish at CA$22.42 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Lightspeed Commerce's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 19% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 42% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 17% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Lightspeed Commerce is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$29.11, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Lightspeed Commerce going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Lightspeed Commerce that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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