Yahoo Finance Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) Up 19.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS). Shares have added about 19.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ionis Pharmaceuticals due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Q1 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Sales Match
Ionis reported a loss of 87 cents per share for first-quarter 2023, much narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.00 per share. In the year-ago quarter, the company had reported a loss of 46 cents per share.
The bottom line includes compensation expense related to equity awards. Excluding these special items, the adjusted loss per share was 68 cents per share versus 27 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Total revenues were $131 million in the first quarter, which came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Revenues declined 7.7% year over year.
Quarter in Detail
Ionis earns commercial revenues, primarily royalty payments on net sales of Spinraza and R&D revenues from partnered medicines.
Commercial revenues were $68 million in the first quarter, down 5.6% year over year.
Commercial revenues from Spinraza royalties were $50 million, down 7.4% year over. The product sales were hurt by lower new patients starts in the United States, currency headwinds and unfavorable channel dynamics in the first quarter.
Revenues from Tegsedi and Waylivra from distribution fees were $7 million compared with $6 million in the year-ago quarter. License and royalty revenues were $11 million in the quarter compared with $12 million in the year-ago quarter.
R&D revenues of $63 million were less than the year-ago revenues of $70 million. The R&D revenues in the quarter included a payment from AstraZeneca for costs shared for eplontersen development as well as some milestone payments from partners Biogen and GSK.
Adjusted operating costs were up 26% year over year to $218 million in the first quarter, mainly due to higher R&D costs, as the company rapidly advanced its wholly-owned late-stage pipeline and increased go-to-market activities for eplontersen, olezarsen and donidalorsen.
2023 Guidance
Ionis reaffirmed its previously issued financial guidance for 2023. The company expects total revenues to be more than $575 million in 2023. Its adjusted operating loss is expected to be less than $425 million.
Adjusted operating expense is expected to be in the range of $970-$995 million. Adjusted operating costs are expected to increase slightly in the second quarter and then gradually increase in the second half. R&D costs are expected to increase in the range of 20-25% year over year in 2023. SG&A costs are expected to increase approximately $35 million year over year.
The company expects its cash and investment to be approximately $2 billion in 2023.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted 7.54% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Ionis Pharmaceuticals has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Ionis Pharmaceuticals has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Ionis Pharmaceuticals belongs to the Zacks Medical - Drugs industry. Another stock from the same industry, ImmunoGen (IMGN), has gained 6.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2023.
ImmunoGen reported revenues of $49.87 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +31%. EPS of -$0.16 for the same period compares with -$0.10 a year ago.
For the current quarter, ImmunoGen is expected to post a loss of $0.17 per share, indicating a change of +29.2% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +5.6% over the last 30 days.
ImmunoGen has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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