Advertisement
Canada markets closed
  • S&P/TSX

    22,690.39
    -36.37 (-0.16%)
     
  • S&P 500

    5,505.00
    -39.59 (-0.71%)
     
  • DOW

    40,287.53
    -377.49 (-0.93%)
     
  • CAD/USD

    0.7282
    -0.0016 (-0.22%)
     
  • CRUDE OIL

    80.25
    -2.57 (-3.10%)
     
  • Bitcoin CAD

    92,619.23
    +544.90 (+0.59%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,388.18
    +57.28 (+4.30%)
     
  • GOLD FUTURES

    2,402.80
    -53.60 (-2.18%)
     
  • RUSSELL 2000

    2,184.35
    -13.94 (-0.63%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    4.2390
    +0.0500 (+1.19%)
     
  • NASDAQ

    17,726.94
    -144.28 (-0.81%)
     
  • VOLATILITY

    16.52
    +0.59 (+3.70%)
     
  • FTSE

    8,155.72
    -49.17 (-0.60%)
     
  • NIKKEI 225

    40,063.79
    -62.56 (-0.16%)
     
  • CAD/EUR

    0.6690
    -0.0003 (-0.04%)
     

Investors in JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) have unfortunately lost 56% over the last three years

JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 19% in the last quarter. Meanwhile over the last three years the stock has dropped hard. Tragically, the share price declined 59% in that time. So the improvement may be a real relief to some. After all, could be that the fall was overdone.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

See our latest analysis for JD.com

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

ADVERTISEMENT

During the three years that the share price fell, JD.com's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 21% each year. This fall in EPS isn't far from the rate of share price decline, which was 26% per year. So it seems like sentiment towards the stock hasn't changed all that much over time. In this case, it seems that the EPS is guiding the share price.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
earnings-per-share-growth

We know that JD.com has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of JD.com, it has a TSR of -56% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in JD.com had a tough year, with a total loss of 18% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 24%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 3%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for JD.com that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.