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While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Cynata Therapeutics Limited (ASX:CYP) share price up 24% in a single quarter. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 48% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
We don't think Cynata Therapeutics' revenue of AU$1,546,052 is enough to establish significant demand. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won't provide funds on attractive terms. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, they may be hoping that Cynata Therapeutics comes up with a great new product, before it runs out of money.
As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets to raise equity. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized).
When it last reported its balance sheet in June 2021, Cynata Therapeutics could boast a strong position, with cash in excess of all liabilities of AU$25m. That allows management to focus on growing the business, and not worry too much about raising capital. But since the share price has dropped 14% per year, over 3 years , it seems like the market might have been over-excited previously. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Cynata Therapeutics' cash levels have changed over time.
In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
Cynata Therapeutics shareholders are down 24% for the year, but the market itself is up 25%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 2% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Cynata Therapeutics has 5 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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