Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But unfortunately, some companies simply don't succeed. To wit, the CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) share price managed to fall 62% over five long years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. Furthermore, it's down 16% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 13% in the same period.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
CoreCivic became profitable within the last five years. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
Revenue is actually up 1.2% over the time period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that CoreCivic has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling CoreCivic stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered CoreCivic's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that CoreCivic's TSR, which was a 51% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that CoreCivic shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 13% over the last year. That certainly beats the loss of about 9% per year over the last half decade. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with CoreCivic (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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