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Investors Who Bought Huishang Bank (HKG:3698) Shares Five Years Ago Are Now Down 17%

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. A talented investor can beat the market with a diversified portfolio, but even then, some stocks will under-perform. While the Huishang Bank Corporation Limited (HKG:3698) share price is down 17% over half a decade, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -3.5%. That's better than the market which returned -16% over the same time. The silver lining is that the stock is up 4.7% in about a week.

See our latest analysis for Huishang Bank

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

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While the share price declined over five years, Huishang Bank actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 11% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It is unusual to see such modest share price growth in the face of sustained EPS improvements. We can look to other metrics to try to understand the situation better.

We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

SEHK:3698 Income Statement April 8th 2020
SEHK:3698 Income Statement April 8th 2020

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Huishang Bank

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Huishang Bank, it has a TSR of -3.5% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While it's never nice to take a loss, Huishang Bank shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends, their trailing twelve month loss of 13% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 18%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 0.7% over the last half decade. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Huishang Bank that you should be aware of.

Of course Huishang Bank may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.