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Introducing FB Financial (NYSE:FBK), A Stock That Climbed 73% In The Last Three Years

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, FB Financial Corporation (NYSE:FBK) shareholders have seen the share price rise 73% over three years, well in excess of the market return (36%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 5.0% in the last year , including dividends .

View our latest analysis for FB Financial

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

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During three years of share price growth, FB Financial achieved compound earnings per share growth of 4.0% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 20% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. That's not necessarily surprising considering the three-year track record of earnings growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NYSE:FBK Past and Future Earnings, October 17th 2019
NYSE:FBK Past and Future Earnings, October 17th 2019

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, FB Financial's TSR for the last 3 years was 75%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

FB Financial produced a TSR of 5.0% over the last year. While you don't go broke making a profit, this return was actually lower than the average market return of about 7.9%. At least the longer term returns (running at about 21% a year, are better. Even the best companies don't see strong share price performance every year. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of FB Financial by clicking this link.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.