Greif (GEF) Down 1.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Greif (GEF). Shares have lost about 1.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Greif due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Grief Q4 Earnings and Sales Miss Estimates, Decline Y/Y
Greif reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.83 for fourth-quarter fiscal 2022, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.97. The bottom line decreased 5.2% year on year.
Including one-time items, EPS was $1.67 in the quarter compared with $1.74 in the prior-year quarter.
Sales were down 5.2% year over year to $1,496 million. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,585 million.
The cost of sales was down 7.6% year over year to $1,186 million. Gross profit amounted to $310 million, up 4.7% from the prior-year quarter’s levels. The gross margin came in at 20.7%, up from last year’s 18.8%.
Selling, general and administrative expenses came in at $140 million compared with the prior-year quarter’s $142 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 3.5% year over year to $218.7 million in the fiscal fourth quarter.
Sales in the Global Industrial Packaging segment came in at $825 million compared with the prior-year quarter’s $952 million. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA amounted to $96 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s $121 million. The drop in the results of this segment was mainly due to foreign currency translation and lower volumes. Also, the sale of the Flexibles Products & Services business negatively impacted the top line of this segment by $84 million. The negative impacts were partially offset by higher average selling prices.
The Paper Packaging segment's net sales rose 7.1% year over year to $666 million in the fiscal fourth quarter. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA moved up to $121 million from the prior-year quarter’s $88 million. The increase in net sales was driven by higher published containerboard and boxboard prices, partially offset by lower volumes.
The Land Management segment’s sales totaled $5.3 million in the reported quarter compared with $4.9 million in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.9 million compared with the year-earlier quarter’s $2.2 million.
Greif reported cash and cash equivalents of $147 million at the end of fiscal 2022 compared with $124.6 million at the end of fiscal 2021. Cash flow from operating activities totaled $658 million in fiscal 2022 compared with $396 million in the prior fiscal. Long-term debt amounted to $1,839 million as of Oct 31, 2022 compared with $2,054 million as of Oct 31, 2021.
On Dec 6, Greif’s board announced a quarterly cash dividend of 50 cents per share of Class A Common Stock and 74 cents per share of Class B Common Stock. The dividend will be paid out on Jan 1, 2023, to shareholders of record at the close of business as of Dec 16, 2022. In fiscal 2022, GEF paid stockholders $111.3 million in cash dividends.
Fiscal 2022 Performance
Adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2022 came in at $7.87, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.03. The bottom line increased 40.5% from fiscal 2021. Including one-time items, EPS was $6.30 in fiscal 2022 compared with $6.54 in the prior fiscal. Total revenues for fiscal-year 2022 came in at $6.3 billion. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.4 billion. The adjusted EBITDA for the year totaled $917.5 million, compared with the adjusted EBITDA of $764.2 million in the prior year.
Greif expects fiscal 2023 adjusted free cash flow between $410 million and $460 million. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be between $820 million and $906 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.
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