Yahoo Finance Grafton Group plc's (LON:GFTU) Stock is Soaring But Financials Seem Inconsistent: Will The Uptrend Continue?
Grafton Group (LON:GFTU) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 19% over the last three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Grafton Group's ROE today.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
Check out our latest analysis for Grafton Group
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Grafton Group is:
7.3% = UK£108m ÷ UK£1.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every £1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn £0.07 in profit.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
Grafton Group's Earnings Growth And 7.3% ROE
On the face of it, Grafton Group's ROE is not much to talk about. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 14%. As a result, Grafton Group reported a very low income growth of 4.3% over the past five years.
We then compared Grafton Group's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 7.5% in the same period, which is a bit concerning.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Grafton Group's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
Is Grafton Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
While Grafton Group has a decent three-year median payout ratio of 30% (or a retention ratio of 70%), it has seen very little growth in earnings. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.
Moreover, Grafton Group has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 31% of its profits over the next three years. However, Grafton Group's ROE is predicted to rise to 9.8% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.
Summary
Overall, we have mixed feelings about Grafton Group. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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