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GLOBAL MARKETS-Global stock markets set for best month ever; gold and dollar pay the price

David Randall
·3 min read

By David Randall

NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - World stock markets dipped on Monday to close a record-breaking month as the prospect of a vaccine-driven economic recovery next year and further stimulus measures by central banks eclipsed immediate concerns about the spiking coronavirus pandemic.

November's record 13% leap has added $6.7 trillion - or $155 million a minute - to the value of world equities.

At the same time, oil, industrial commodities and other risk assets have surged, with emerging-market currencies posting their largest gains in almost two years, while safe-havens such as the dollar and gold slipped.

"It has been a very, very strong month for markets, especially on the equity side but also on the fixed income side too," said Rabobank's head of macro strategy, Elwin de Groot.

The positive developments on vaccines and the swiftness with which they are likely to be rolled out have been key drivers.

"And this market still remains very much supported by liquidity from the central banks," De Groot said. With the European Central Bank set to provide more stimulus next month, "the market view seems to be, what can possibly go wrong?"

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.39% following modest declines in Asia and mixed trading in Europe. Many European markets are boasting their best month ever, with France up 21% and Italy almost 26%. The Nikkei's 15% leap in Japan was its best month since 1994.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 190.36 points, or 0.64%, to 29,720.01, the S&P 500 lost 6.4 points, or 0.18%, to 3,631.95 and the Nasdaq Composite added 29.91 points, or 0.25%, to 12,235.76.

The surge in stocks has put competitive pressure on safe-haven bonds, but much of that has been cushioned by expectations of more asset buying by central banks.

U.S. benchmark 10-year notes last fell 2/32 in price to yield 0.8471%, from 0.842% late on Friday.

"Markets are overbought and at risk of a short-term pause," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital.

"However, we are now in a seasonally strong time of year and investors are yet to fully discount the potential for a very strong recovery next year in growth and profits as stimulus combines with vaccines."

Helping sentiment further on Monday was a survey showing that factory activity in China beat forecasts in November, and the country's central bank surprised with an extra helping of cheap loans.

Moderna provided the regular Monday dose of vaccine news, saying it was applying for emergency-use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and conditional approval from the European Union.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Tuesday amid speculation of further policy action at its next meeting in mid-December.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index was pinned at 91.704 after shedding 2.4% for the month to lows last seen in mid-2018.

One major casualty of the rush to risk has been gold, which was near a five-month trough at $1,769 an ounce, having shed 5.6% in November.

Oil, in contrast, has benefited nearly 30% from the prospect of a revival in demand should vaccines allow travel and transport to resume next year.

Some profit-taking set in early on Monday ahead of an OPEC+ meeting to decide whether the producers' group will extend large output cuts.

U.S. crude recently fell 0.51% to $45.30 per barrel and Brent was at $47.84, down 0.71% on the day.

(Reporting by David Randall; editing by Jonathan Oatis)