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EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – Fiber Remains Fragile Ahead of EU Elections

Nikhil Khandelwal

During the early morning hours, the pair showed great signs revealing strong willingness to recover. The Fiber attempted to knock off 1.1167 and 1.1164 resistance levels but failed to get a breakthrough. Laterwards, the pair had to settle near 1.1155 levels making an inverted curve facing south.

Last night, the pair had uplifted around 0.13% following the presentation of May’s “New Improvised Deal”. Anyhow, the pair couldn’t hold the gains for long and reverted to the lower level.   

Meanwhile, concerns from the Italian political front continued to trouble the pair. Adding to the Italian threat to violate the Euro fiscal rules, rising US-German Yield differential remains another issue.

Over to the USD side, the Index made a U-turn from 98.00 levels, straight to 98.09 levels in the Asian session. In the initial hours, the Greenback was still under the hangover of last day’s 24 pips plunge. The buck had fallen as the April Home Sales data came out contradictory to the market expectation. The Street analysts had hoped for a bullish data this time. However, April Home Sales reported bearish figures, 160K below estimates.

Also, the US-China trade war continued to remain uncertain, heading on the wrong track. With US blacklisting Huawei, damages get incurred at both the ends. US Semiconductor firms complain that they have lost a significant chunk of their revenue as China was their biggest buyer. In this way, things are getting more complicated over time. And, with increasing US-China trade talk timeline, the overall global economy remains under pressure.   

EU Elections will commence from tomorrow until May 26. Any unexpected update or outcome on that front may set the EUR/USD pair volatile. The current market sentiment reveals excellent support for the Brexit party, making the pair head down.

EUR/USD Influencing Events

Today, at the colloquium held in Frankfurt, Germany, few Executive members of ECB will talk about the European Monetary Policy. Firstly in the Asian session, the ECB will meet for a Monthly Non-Monetary policy discussion. Laterwards, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will talk about interest rates and other economic developments. In his last lecture, Draghi had mentioned that the ECB interest rates may remain unchanged. At 9:30 GMT, the Board member of ECB, Peter Paret, will join the same conference.

On the USD front, the most significant happenings of the day are FOMC Minutes. In this meeting, the future US interest rate policy would get released. The minutes of this discussion will have a significant impact on the US Dollar Index. Furthermore, the MBA Mortgage Applications and the EIA Crude Oil Stock Change report will come out in the afternoon.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD 60 Min 22 May 2019

Today, the red Ichimuko Clouds (IC) overshadowed the EUR/USD pair referring a bear call. Also, the pair stood below the Base Line of the IC, directing the recent price momentum to the downside. Moreover, the Conversion Line of IC dropped below the Base Line, alerting selling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showcased the pair’s movement and hovered between 50-40 levels. This current reading of RSI indicates moderate buying and mild investor interest. In the Asian session, the Fiber started from 1.1160 levels and later dropped to 1.1153 levels. If the EUR/USD pair moves further downward, then it may find support point near 1.1142 levels. On the contrary, if the pair uplifts it would seek to reach a resistance line near 1.1188 levels.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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