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The EU Parliamentary Elections – The Calm Before the Storm

Bob Mason
Updated

The EU Parliamentary elections are finally upon us. While many had thought that this would be an EU affair, British voters will have perhaps one final say on EU politics.

With UK voters going to the polls tomorrow, there’s been plenty of news coverage on what lies ahead for the Tories.

One thing is for certain. The media and political parties will consider the outcome of tomorrow’s vote as a precursor to a possible second EU Referendum.

It has been the battle of the minions. The Liberal Democrats versus the Brexit Party. On one side, the pro-EU and on the other, the pro-Brexiteers.

Likely to garner plenty of attention on the eve of what could be a spectacular vote, Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable is set to go head to head with Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage. The Telegraph will be hosting this morning’s debate.

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The head to head is scheduled for 9 am, UK time this morning… The two parties are polar opposites on Brexit. It will certainly make for an interesting debate. More importantly, it will likely have a material influence on the final outcome of tomorrow’s vote.

The Polls

Looking at the polls ahead of today’s debate, the Brexit Party remain favorite to win the largest number of EU parliamentary seats.

According to the latest YouGov polls, the Brexit Party lead the polls with 35% of the vote. A distant second comes the Liberal Democrats with 16% and Labour in 3rd with 15%. For Theresa May and the Tories, they stand in 5th with just 9% of the vote.

The Day Ahead

Therese May and the Tories are now in panic mode, with the polls pointing to a whitewashing.

There was an almost desperate bid to woo back voters and attempt to reunite the Conservative Party on Tuesday. Theresa May offered a 2nd EU referendum and a vote on a post-Brexit customs agreement with the EU.

As both the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats have shown, however, a political party needs to stand on one side of the fence and not actually sit on it…

The latest attempts to woo in party support backfired on Tuesday. So, it’s off to the polls.

For the Pound

Any hopes of a parliamentary vote to avoid Britain from taking part in tomorrow’s EU Elections, they have likely been dashed.

Unsurprisingly, the ever-increasing prospect of a hard Brexit is weighing on the Pound in the early part of this morning.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.27% to $1.26694. On Tuesday, support for the Pound had come off the back of Theresa May’s new deal.

A vote in favor of a soft Brexit deal would have, not only averted a no-deal Brexit but, also softened the impact of an anti-EU successor as the leader of the Conservative Party.

Market focus through the day will be on Parliament and voter reaction to this morning’s debate.

We can expect a choppy day ahead…

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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