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Equinox Gold's (TSE:EQX) Earnings Aren't As Good As They Appear

Even though Equinox Gold Corp. (TSE:EQX) posted strong earnings recently, the stock hasn't reacted in a large way. We decided to have a deeper look, and we believe that investors might be worried about several concerning factors that we found.

View our latest analysis for Equinox Gold

earnings-and-revenue-history
earnings-and-revenue-history

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. In fact, Equinox Gold increased the number of shares on issue by 37% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out Equinox Gold's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

How Is Dilution Impacting Equinox Gold's Earnings Per Share (EPS)?

Unfortunately, Equinox Gold's profit is down 55% per year over three years. On the bright side, in the last twelve months it grew profit by 1,523%. On the other hand, earnings per share are only up 1,391% over the same period. Therefore, one can observe that the dilution is having a fairly profound effect on shareholder returns.

Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So Equinox Gold shareholders will want to see that EPS figure continue to increase. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Alongside that dilution, it's also important to note that Equinox Gold's profit was boosted by unusual items worth US$52m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Equinox Gold had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to June 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Equinox Gold's Profit Performance

In its last report Equinox Gold benefitted from unusual items which boosted its profit, which could make the profit seem better than it really is on a sustainable basis. And furthermore, it went and issued plenty of new shares, ensuring that each shareholder (who did not tip more money in) now owns a smaller proportion of the company. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Equinox Gold's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Equinox Gold at this point in time. Our analysis shows 3 warning signs for Equinox Gold (1 is a bit unpleasant!) and we strongly recommend you look at them before investing.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.