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Embraer's 2017 Deliveries Meet Estimates, Backlog Slips Q/Q

Zacks Equity Research
Updated

Embraer S.A. ERJ reported solid delivery figures for the fourth quarter as well as 2017. The full-year delivery figure was within the company’s guided range. Notably, the company has delivered 73 jets in the fourth
quarter and 210 in 2017.

2017 Deliveries

Embraer reported commercial aviation market deliveries of 101 planes and executive aviation market deliveries of 109 in 2017. Deliveries to the executive aviation market include 72 light and 37 large executive
jets. The figures were within the company’s guidance of 97-102 commercial jets, 70-80 light executive jets and 35-45 large executive jets.

On a year-over-year basis, commercial deliveries dropped 6.7%, while executive aviation deliveries fell 6.8%.

Q4 Deliveries

Total deliveries in the fourth quarter were 73, compared with 75 in the year-ago quarter. Deliveries in the commercial aviation market totaled 23 jets in the fourth quarter, compared with 32 jets in the year-earlier
quarter. Deliveries to the executive aviation market included 32 light and 18 large executive jets.

Q4 Backlog

The company exited the fourth quarter with an order backlog of $18.3 billion, slightly lower than the third-quarter level of $18.8 billion.

During the fourth quarter, Embraer Commercial Aviation reached the mark of 1,400 E-Jets delivered since inception. The company also received orders for 10 additional E175 jets from American Airlines. Embraer
also received orders for 15 more E175 jets from an undisclosed customer and an order for one additional current generation E195 from Belavia, a Belarus-based airlines.

New Product Lines

During the fourth quarter, Embraer unveiled the Phenom 300E jet with new interior and entertainment system as well as cabin management novelties. The company also presented innovation in the Legacy 450
and Legacy 500 jets. Embraer’s Defense & Security division announced the launch of the Embraer KC-390 military transport and aerial refueling jet.

Moreover, this division agreed to sell 18 A-29 Super Tucano aircraft, six to the U.S. Air Force, six to the Philippine Air Force and the rest to an undisclosed customer.

In December 2017, Embraer launched a TechCare platform, designed to improve operational efficiency, extending aircraft life and maximizing fleet potential.

Long-Term Outlook

Embraer expects total market deliveries of 6,400-2,300 jets at the 70-90 seat segment and 4,100 units at the 90-130 seat segment by 2035. The 70-130 seat worldwide fleet in service is anticipated to increase from
2,670 jets in 2015 to 6,690 by 2035, making it the fastest growing segment.

The Boeing Company’s latest outlook projects that the world will need 41,030 new planes, worth $6.1 trillion, between 2017 and 2036. The company expects single-aisle jets to be a major growth driver,
accounting for 72% of the total projection. This reflects a worldwide demand for 29,530 single-aisle jets, worth $3.2 trillion, in the next 20 years. Additionally, commercial passenger traffic is expected to grow 4.7%
annually.

As a result of such improved projections on commercial jets, we expect Embraer’s commercial fleet to experience a sales boost in the upcoming quarterly results, based on steady inflow of orders and solid
demand expectations.

Price Movement

Shares of Embraer have gained 13.9% over the last year, outperforming the industry’s gain of 54.8%. The underperformance might have been led by stiff competition that Embraer faces in the commercial aircraft manufacturing industry dominated by aerospace giants — Boeing and Airbus.

 



Zacks Rank & Key Picks

Embraer carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

A few better-ranked stocks from the same space are Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. AJRD, Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC and Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, Inc. SPR. While Aerojet Rocketdyne and
Northrop Grumman sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Spirit Aerosystems carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Aerojet Rocketdyne posted an average positive earnings surprise of 19.27% over the last four quarters. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2018 earnings moved up 20 cents over the past 90 days.

Northrop Grumman posted an average positive earnings surprise of 17.24% in the past four quarters. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2018 earnings rose by 44 cents over the last 90 days.

Spirit Aerosystems has an average positive earnings surprise of 4.52% for the past four quarters. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2018 earnings has risen by 21 cents in the last 90 days.

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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica (ERJ) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. (AJRD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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