Earnings Estimates Rising for Alcoa (AA): Will It Gain?

Alcoa (AA) could be a solid choice for investors given the company's remarkably improving earnings outlook. While the stock has been a strong performer lately, this trend might continue since analysts are still raising their earnings estimates for the company.

The upward trend in estimate revisions for this bauxite, alumina and aluminum products company reflects growing optimism of analysts on its earnings prospects, which should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. Our stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- has this insight at its core.

The five-grade Zacks Rank system, which ranges from a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record of outperformance, with Zacks #1 Ranked stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 2008.

Consensus earnings estimates for the next quarter and full year have moved considerably higher for Alcoa, as there has been strong agreement among the covering analysts in raising estimates.

The chart below shows the evolution of forward 12-month Zacks Consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Current-Quarter Estimate Revisions

For the current quarter, the company is expected to earn $1.51 per share, which is a change of +229.06% from the year-ago reported number.

Over the last 30 days, one estimate has moved higher for Alcoa compared to no negative revisions. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased 9.4%.

Current-Year Estimate Revisions

For the full year, the company is expected to earn $5.49 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +573.28%.

There has been an encouraging trend in estimate revisions for the current year as well. Over the past month, two estimates have moved up for Alcoa versus no negative revisions. This has pushed the consensus estimate 12.31% higher.

Favorable Zacks Rank

Thanks to promising estimate revisions, Alcoa currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The Zacks Rank is a tried-and-tested rating tool that helps investors effectively harness the power of earnings estimate revisions and make the right investment decision. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Our research shows that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) significantly outperform the S&P 500.

Bottom Line

Alcoa shares have added 17.9% over the past four weeks, suggesting that investors are betting on its impressive estimate revisions. So, you may consider adding it to your portfolio right away to benefit from its earnings growth prospects.

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