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What Does LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s (NYSE:LYB) Share Price Indicate?

Simply Wall St
·3 min read

Let's talk about the popular LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB). The company's shares saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on LyondellBasell Industries’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for LyondellBasell Industries

What Is LyondellBasell Industries Worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 14% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy LyondellBasell Industries today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $108.13, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that LyondellBasell Industries’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from LyondellBasell Industries?

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for LyondellBasell Industries, at least in the near future.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? LYB seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

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Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on LYB for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on LYB should the price fluctuate below its true value.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Be aware that LyondellBasell Industries is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis and 1 of those is potentially serious...

If you are no longer interested in LyondellBasell Industries, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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