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Does The Alamos Gold Inc. (TSE:AGI) Share Price Tend To Follow The Market?

Anyone researching Alamos Gold Inc. (TSE:AGI) might want to consider the historical volatility of the share price. Volatility is considered to be a measure of risk in modern finance theory. Investors may think of volatility as falling into two main categories. First, we have company specific volatility, which is the price gyrations of an individual stock. Holding at least 8 stocks can reduce this kind of risk across a portfolio. The second type is the broader market volatility, which you cannot diversify away, since it arises from macroeconomic factors which directly affects all the stocks on the market.

Some stocks see their prices move in concert with the market. Others tend towards stronger, gentler or unrelated price movements. Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). However, Warren Buffett said ‘volatility is far from synonymous with risk’ in his 2014 letter to investors. So, while useful, beta is not the only metric to consider. To use beta as an investor, you must first understand that the overall market has a beta of one. A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market. In comparison a stock with a beta of over one tends to be move in a similar direction to the market in the long term, but with greater changes in price.

Check out our latest analysis for Alamos Gold

What does AGI’s beta value mean to investors?

Zooming in on Alamos Gold, we see it has a five year beta of 0.87. This is below 1, so historically its share price has been rather independent from the market. This means that — if history is a guide — buying the stock would reduce the impact of overall market volatility in many portfolios (depending on the beta of the portfolio, of course). Share price volatility is well worth considering, but most long term investors consider the history of revenue and earnings growth to be more important. Take a look at how Alamos Gold fares in that regard, below.

TSX:AGI Income Statement Export December 25th 18
TSX:AGI Income Statement Export December 25th 18

How does AGI’s size impact its beta?

Alamos Gold is a small cap stock with a market capitalisation of CA$1.9b. Most companies this size are actively traded. Small cap stocks ofthen have a higher beta than the overall market. However, small companies can also be strongly impacted by company specific developments, which can move the share price in ways that are unrelated to the broader market. That could explain why this one has a low beta value.

What this means for you:

One potential advantage of owning low beta stocks like Alamos Gold is that your overall portfolio won’t be too sensitive to overall market movements. However, this can be a blessing or a curse, depending on what’s happening in the broader market. This article aims to educate investors about beta values, but it’s well worth looking at important company-specific fundamentals such as Alamos Gold’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to continue your research by taking a look at the following:

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  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for AGI’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for AGI’s outlook.

  2. Past Track Record: Has AGI been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of AGI’s historicals for more clarity.

  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It’s worth checking to see how AGI measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.