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Did Changing Sentiment Drive Lattice Biologics's (CVE:LBL) Share Price Down A Painful 85%?

It is a pleasure to report that the Lattice Biologics Ltd. (CVE:LBL) is up 50% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been stomach churning. In that time the share price has melted like a snowball in the desert, down 85%. So it sure is nice to see a big of an improvement. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still.

We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

Want to participate in a short research study? Help shape the future of investing tools and you could win a $250 gift card!

View our latest analysis for Lattice Biologics

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Lattice Biologics recorded just US$1,260,215 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn't really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren't funding it. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. For example, they may be hoping that Lattice Biologics comes up with a great new treatment, before it runs out of money.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Lattice Biologics has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.

Our data indicates that Lattice Biologics had US$8,517,013 more in total liabilities than it had cash, when it last reported in December 2018. That puts it in the highest risk category, according to our analysis. But since the share price has dived -47% per year, over 3 years, it looks like some investors think it's time to abandon ship, so to speak. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Lattice Biologics's cash levels have changed over time.

TSXV:LBL Historical Debt, May 22nd 2019
TSXV:LBL Historical Debt, May 22nd 2019

It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn't even have revenue. There's no way to know its value easily. What if insiders are ditching the stock hand over fist? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It only takes a moment for you to check whether we have identified any insider sales recently.

A Different Perspective

Over the last year, Lattice Biologics shareholders took a loss of 57%. In contrast the market gained about 1.7%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Shareholders have lost 47% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. We would be wary of buying into a company with unsolved problems, although some investors will buy into struggling stocks if they believe the price is sufficiently attractive. If you would like to research Lattice Biologics in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.