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Did Changing Sentiment Drive Capstone Mining’s Share Price Down A Painful 74%?

Capstone Mining Corp. (TSE:CS) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 19% in the last month. But spare a thought for the long term holders, who have held the stock as it bled value over the last five years. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 74% in that time. While the recent increase might be a green shoot, we’re certainly hesitant to rejoice. The real question is whether the business can leave its past behind and improve itself over the years ahead.

View our latest analysis for Capstone Mining

To quote Buffett, ‘Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace…’ One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

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During five years of share price growth, Capstone Mining moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

The revenue fall of 0.6% per year for five years is neither good nor terrible. But it’s quite possible the market had expected better; a closer look at the revenue trends might explain the pessimism.

The chart below shows how revenue and earnings have changed with time, (if you click on the chart you can see the actual values).

TSX:CS Income Statement, March 5th 2019
TSX:CS Income Statement, March 5th 2019

It’s good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That’s a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Capstone Mining

A Different Perspective

Capstone Mining shareholders are down 50% for the year, but the market itself is up 3.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 23% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares – and the price they paid.

Capstone Mining is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.