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Is Critical Elements's (CVE:CRE) 139% Share Price Increase Well Justified?

While Critical Elements Corporation (CVE:CRE) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 29% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 139% in that time. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today.

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See our latest analysis for Critical Elements

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Critical Elements hasn't yet reported any revenue yet, so it's as much a business idea as an actual business. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, investors may be hoping that Critical Elements finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. Of course, if you time it right, high risk investments like this can really pay off, as Critical Elements investors might know.

Critical Elements had liabilities exceeding cash by CA$3,771,047 when it last reported in February 2019, according to our data. That puts it in the highest risk category, according to our analysis. So we're surprised to see the stock up 19% per year, over 5 years, but we're happy for holders. It's clear more than a few people believe in the potential. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Critical Elements's cash levels have changed over time.

TSXV:CRE Historical Debt, May 27th 2019
TSXV:CRE Historical Debt, May 27th 2019

In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, many of the best investors like to check if insiders have been buying shares. It's often positive if so, assuming the buying is sustained and meaningful. Luckily we are in a position to provide you with this free chart of insider buying (and selling).

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 1.6% in the last year, Critical Elements shareholders lost 53%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 19% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Critical Elements by clicking this link.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.