Christian McCaffrey’s effect on Panthers offense? The numbers with and without him

Christian McCaffrey has missed nine games this season for the Carolina Panthers.

After not missing a single week in his professional career coming into the season, McCaffrey’s absence has had a significant impact on the offense of the Panthers (4-8). There’s no way around that. Head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady designed this unit during the offseason with the 2019 All-Pro as a focal point.

“Christian is one of the pieces that definitely is going to be the driving force of our offense,” Brady said this summer.

Talk of how many touches the back should get and concerns about overusing him that were a significant part of the months leading up to the season have since become moot.

The conversation has switched to whether the four-year, $64 million extension the back received in April was too much. It’s far too early to say whether McCaffrey was over- or under-paid. A bad season of injuries does not rule out the impact that the running back can have on this team.

“He’s a fantastic player, he brings a lot to the table, he creates matchups, he allows you to be creative. I think as we drew up, as Joe drew up and the staff drew up, ‘hey, this is what we’re going to focus on this year,’ they drew it up with Christian in mind. You obviously plan for it, so you adjust and you don’t make excuses,” Rhule said. “You’d love to move forward with him, so we’ll see if we have him this last month and use him and play with him and take advantage of everything that he brings.”

McCaffrey was limited in practice all of last week with a shoulder injury and was ruled out of the game vs. the Minnesota Vikings. But he will have a chance to return vs. the Denver Broncos in Week 14, or at least for a portion of the remaining four games. Rhule said Monday that he would never not play someone because the team is out of the playoff hunt.

A look at McCaffrey’s impact:

In a limited sample size, McCaffrey’s impact has been clear. Rhule acknowledged that teams tend to play them differently when McCaffrey is or isn’t on the field, but again, it’s hard to get a definitive look at that when he’s only been on the field for parts of three games. But there is a trend worth watching.

“People don’t typically put a linebacker on him, and I say that with the greatest respect for (running backs) Mike (Davis) and Rodney (Smith) and Trenton (Cannon), but when Christian’s out there, they usually put a safety or someone on them, so it just kind of changes a little bit of of their pressure package and what they can do and then some of our reads,” Rhule said on the differences in the opposing defense. “We target him first and try to get the ball in his hands and so people sometimes they bracket him or take him away.”

▪ Points per game: 26.0 with McCaffrey, 22.4 without

Of the three times the Panthers have scored 30 points this year, McCaffrey has played in two of those games.

▪ Yards per game: 416.6 with McCaffrey, 334.2 without

▪ First downs per game: 25.3 with McCaffrey, 20.1 without

▪ Third down conversion: 50% with McCaffrey, 37.1% without

▪ Touchdowns: McCaffrey has accounted for six touchdowns this year, two in each of his games played. He is one of 10 players this year to score two or more touchdowns in three-plus games this season.

McCaffrey is the only Panther with six touchdowns. Davis and wide receiver Curtis Samuel have five.

▪ Red-zone touchdown efficiency: 8-11 (73%) with McCaffrey, 14-29 (48.3%).

▪ Record: 0-3 with McCaffrey, 4-5 without.

McCaffrey was on the field for games against three playoff teams — Las Vegas Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. Take that stat with a grain of salt.

“He’s a top-five NFL player and your best players you feel great about your chances of winning,” Rhule said.

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