British investors raise UK equities; cut U.S., Europe in portfolios - Reuters poll

By Sujata Rao

LONDON - British investors' allocations to UK equities rose to 16-month highs in November but they dumped U.S. stocks and bonds ahead of a likely interest rate rise there next month, a Reuters poll of investors showed.

With uncertainty still high about the global economy and the efficacy of policymakers' responses, average exposure to equities and bonds was more or less unchanged over the month at 52.6 percent and 22.4 percent respectively, according to the survey of 12 asset managers based in Britain.

"Equities continue to see a toxic combination of slowing economic growth, expensive valuations and a dwindling faith in central banks. Markets need to sense robust and sustainable earnings growth to resume upward progress," Rob Pemberton, investment director at HFM Columbus, said.

Of fixed income markets, Pemberton said that with yields anchored at extremely low levels, it was a difficult asset class in which to make much money, and that "risks to capital are skewed to the downside".

The poll was conducted between Nov. 17 and 26, a period in which the U.S. Federal Reserve cemented expectations of a December rate rise, its first hike in nine years.

Investors are also positioning for a Dec. 3 meeting of the European Central Bank which may unleash more policy easing, expectations that were stoked further by a Reuters report that measures such as staggered charges on banks hoarding cash were under consideration.

Such expectations have pushed European stocks near three-month highs, while yields are plumbing record lows. Five-year German yields fell to minus 0.204 percent last week, while Italy placed five-year paper at 0.37 percent.

In the United States, stocks hit record highs in November as investors are convinced that Fed rate rises will be gradual.

Asset allocation specialists at Old Mutual were among those who viewed equities as risky, citing "high margins, (rich) valuations, little growth".

Poll participants cut holdings of North American stocks to 27.2 percent, more than 2 percentage points below October levels, while euro zone equity holdings hit 10-month lows of 14.56 percent.

But British stocks' weight rose six percentage points to 29.5 percent, the highest since July 2014. The UK stock market has underperformed its Japanese, European and U.S. peers in 2015, partly due to large numbers of listings by miners and emerging market firms.

Yet British consumer spending and business investment have picked up, with the Bank of England forecasting 2015 growth at 2.7 percent. Interest rates are not expected to rise before the second quarter of 2016.

Within fixed income portfolios, the allocation to U.S. debt fell to 27.7 percent, the lowest in over a year, while British bond holdings slipped one percentage point to 29.9 percent, the lowest since June.

Government bonds' share in portfolios fell to four-month lows of 23.9 percent.

The majority of investors continue to view emerging markets with caution, given uncertainties surrounding China, economic growth in countries such as Brazil and Russia, and the weak commodity outlook.

But some such as Peter Lowman, chief investment officer of Investment Quorum said that "pockets of value" had started to appear, especially in markets less affected by the commodity price collapse.

"Selective countries within EM could be an area of investor interest as we enter 2016," Lowman said.

(Additional reporting by Claire Milhench; Editing by Catherine Evans)