Yahoo Finance Is British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s (LON:BATS) Recent Performance Underpinned By Weak Financials?
It is hard to get excited after looking at British American Tobacco's (LON:BATS) recent performance, when its stock has declined 8.2% over the past three months. To decide if this trend could continue, we decided to look at its weak fundamentals as they shape the long-term market trends. In this article, we decided to focus on British American Tobacco's ROE.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
View our latest analysis for British American Tobacco
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for British American Tobacco is:
9.0% = UK£6.8b ÷ UK£76b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).
The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every £1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated £0.09 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
A Side By Side comparison of British American Tobacco's Earnings Growth And 9.0% ROE
On the face of it, British American Tobacco's ROE is not much to talk about. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 15%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 43% seen by British American Tobacco was probably the result of it having a lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.
That being said, we compared British American Tobacco's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 8.2% in the same period.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about British American Tobacco's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
Is British American Tobacco Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
British American Tobacco has a high three-year median payout ratio of 77% (that is, it is retaining 23% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent. You can see the 2 risks we have identified for British American Tobacco by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.
Moreover, British American Tobacco has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 61%. However, British American Tobacco's ROE is predicted to rise to 12% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.
Summary
Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on British American Tobacco. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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