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Big Lots' (BIG) Q1 Earnings Coming Up: What's in the Cards?

Big Lots, Inc. BIG is likely to report a decrease in the top and bottom lines from the last fiscal year’s quarterly reading in its first-quarter fiscal 2023 results on May 26, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal first-quarter bottom line is pegged at a loss of $1.87 per share, wider than the loss of 39 cents per share reported in the year-earlier quarter. The consensus estimate has been unchanged in the past 30 days.

The consensus mark for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1,186 million, indicating a 13.7% drop from the prior quarter's reported number.

We expect revenues to fall 13.9% from the year-ago quarter’s actual to $1,183.2 million and the adjusted loss to decline 402.8% from the year-earlier quarter’s reported level to $1.96 per share.

This Columbus, OH-based player delivered a negative earnings surprise of 20.6%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Key Factors to Note

Big Lots’ quarterly performance is likely to have been hurt by a challenging macroeconomic landscape, including headwinds like inflationary pressures. Any deleverage in SG&A costs are expected have been added deterrents. In addition, Big Lots has been witnessing increased freight costs for a while. All these factors are likely to have hurt BIG’s performance in the fiscal first quarter.

On its last reported quarter's earnings call, management had anticipated the sales backdrop to remain challenging, mainly in the first half of the fiscal year. Big Lots is expected to have witnessed persistent pressure in the market environment for the quarter under review, mainly in higher ticket and more discretionary items. It highlighted that tax refunds are likely to have been down in total from the last year and the impacts of the United Furniture Closure are likely to have continued. Consequently, management forecast comps to decline in the low to the mid-teens range for the fiscal first quarter.

The company had also predicted SG&A dollars to rise slightly year over year mainly due to inflation and higher expenses in advertising healthcare workers' compensation costs, along with the operation of two incremental forward distribution centers.

On the flip side, Big Lots’ Operation North Star initiative and e-commerce business appear encouraging. BIG’s Broyhill and Real Living brands have been performing well. Management has also been consistently taking steps to control expenses. It had earlier stated that net new stores will contribute nearly 40 basis points of year-over-year growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2023.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Big Lots this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3(Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Big Lots, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Big Lots, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Big Lots, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Big Lots, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Big Lots, Inc. Quote

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Big Lots currently has an Earnings ESP of -5.27% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are a few companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this reporting cycle:

American Eagle Outfitters AEO currently has an Earnings ESP of +9.81% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is expected to report bottom-line growth when it releases first-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stands at 17 cents per share, indicating an increase of 6.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.

The company’s revenues are anticipated to have grown year over year. The consensus mark for the same is pegged at $1.06 billion, implying a 0.8% improvement from that reported in the prior-year period.

Casey's General Stores CASY currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.05% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is expected to register bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at $1.61 per share, indicating a rise of 0.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

The company’s revenues are anticipated to decrease year over year. The consensus mark for the same stands at $3.42 billion, indicating a deterioration of 1.2% from that reported in the year-ago quarter. CASY has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 9.9%.

lululemon athletica LULU currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.24% and a Zacks Rank of 3. LULU is likely to record top-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2023 results.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.9 billion, indicating a 19.5% improvement from the prior-year quarter’s actual. The consensus mark for earnings stands at $1.93 per share, implying a 30.4% increase from that reported in the comparable period of 2022. LULU has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.8%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Big Lots, Inc. (BIG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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