Biden might take harder line in Cuba, Venezuela to make up for bungled exit from Afghanistan | Opinion

I predict that President Biden’s ill-fated withdrawal from Afghanistan will force his administration to project an image of strength and to harden his line against anti-American regimes around the world, including Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

Granted, that’s against the conventional wisdom. Most critics say that Biden’s badly executed withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan has conveyed an image of America’s weakness that will embolden U.S. adversaries, including China, Russia and their allies in Latin America.

John Bolton, former national security adviser in the Trump administration, told me that in a recent interview, saying Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and their allies “will take heart” from the U.S. blunder in Afghanistan.

“They will believe they have greater freedom of action, certainly greater freedom of action within their own countries, against their own people,” because of America’s perceived weakness, Bolton told me. “And I think other regimes in the Western Hemisphere — I’m thinking of Peru, in particular, now — may draw the same lesson.”

Bolton, who unsuccessfully tried to convince President Trump not to call for a total withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, admitted that the military departure from that country was a “Biden-Trump” fiasco. Trump had called for a total exit of U.S. troops by May 1 of this year and had made a bad deal with the Taliban in 2020.

Several Venezuelan and Cuban opposition leaders I talked to in recent days disagree with the notion that the Afghanistan debacle will embolden America’s enemies. On the contrary, they said, this may force Biden to step up sanctions against Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and perhaps even other countries, to counter criticism that he’s a weak leader.

Some U.S. foreign policy experts agree.

“Biden is viewed as weak right now, and he knows it,” Seth G. Jones, a foreign policy expert with the center-right Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told me. “In particular, he is very worried about being seen as weak with China, but that could also extend to Latin America.”

Indeed, I find it hard to believe that Biden would want to re-engage with Cuba in the post-Afghanistan world — and in the aftermath of the July 11 massive protests on the island.

In March, 80 Democrats in the U.S. House sent a letter asking Biden to repeal what they called “cruel” U.S. sanctions on Cuba and to seek a “more constructive approach” with the island. That wasn’t likely to happen anyway, and is much less likely to happen now.

In fact, Biden is already hardening U.S. sanctions on Cuba. On Aug. 19, the Biden administration announced another round of measures to freeze the assets and impose travel bans on three additional Cuban officials involved in human-rights abuses. On Aug. 9, The New York Times wrote that Biden “has been tougher than Donald Trump on the island’s government.”

On Venezuela, I don’t expect Biden to relax U.S. sanctions on Nicolas Maduro’s dictatorship ahead of a new round of negotiations between the regime and the opposition in Mexico, scheduled for Sept. 3. On the contrary, Biden is likely to impose new, targeted sanctions on Venezuelan officials as a way to step up the pressure on the regime ahead of the new round of talks, someone close to the Venezuelan opposition’s negotiating team told me.

We probably won’t see Biden embark on any major policy offensive in Latin America in coming days, because — judging from what I hear from U.S. officials — much of the State Department’s personnel has been diverted to processing visas for the tens of thousands of Afghans who worked for U.S. troops, and who now are trying to flee the country.

But in a few weeks or months, after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is complete, criticism of Biden’s handling of this crisis will probably not have subsided. And that is likely to make Biden more eager to flex his muscles everywhere else, including in Latin America.

Don’t miss the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV show on Sundays at 8 pm E.T. on CNN en Español. Twitter: @oppenheimera