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Bearish: Analysts Just Cut Their Charlotte's Web Holdings, Inc. (TSE:CWEB) Revenue and EPS estimates

Market forces rained on the parade of Charlotte's Web Holdings, Inc. (TSE:CWEB) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from six analysts covering Charlotte's Web Holdings is for revenues of US$82m in 2022, implying a perceptible 5.5% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 81% to US$0.18. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$96m and US$0.15 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

View our latest analysis for Charlotte's Web Holdings

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Analysts lifted their price target 35% to US$1.55, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are not expected to have a longer-term impact on the stock's value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Charlotte's Web Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$2.00 and the most bearish at US$0.70 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

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These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Charlotte's Web Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 11% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.9% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 23% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Charlotte's Web Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The rising price target is a puzzle, but still - with a serious cut to this year's outlook, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Charlotte's Web Holdings.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Charlotte's Web Holdings going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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