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Bear Of The Day: Five Below (FIVE)

Five Below (FIVE) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) despite beating the bottom line estimate when the company last reported earnings back in early June.  Since then, the stock has been lower as worries in the retail sector persist.  Let’s look at why this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) in this Bear of the Day article.

Description

Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer in the United States. It offers accessories, including socks, sunglasses, jewelry, scarves, gloves, hair accessories, athletic tops and bottoms, and t-shirts, as well as nail polishes, lip glosses, fragrances, and branded cosmetics; and items used to complete and personalize living space, such as glitter lamps, posters, frames, fleece blankets, plush items, pillows, candles, incense, lighting, novelty decor, accent furniture, and related items, as well as provides storage options for the customers room. As of January 29, 2022, the company operated approximately 1,190 stores in 40 states. Five Below, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Earnings History

When I look at a stock, the first thing I do is look to see if the company is beating the number.  This tells me right away where the market’s expectations have been for the company and how management has communicated to the market.  A stock that consistently beats has management communicating expectations to Wall Street that can be achieved.  That is what you want to see.

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In the case of FIVE, I see four straight beats of the  Zacks Consensus Estimate.   This alone does not make the stock a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and it doesn’t make it a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) either.

The Zacks Rank does care about the earnings history, but it is much more heavily influenced by the movement of earnings estimates.

Earnings Estimates

The Zacks Rank tells us which stocks are seeing earnings estimates move higher or in this case lower.  For DHII see annual estimates moving lower.

The current fiscal year 2023 consensus number has dropped from $5.50 to $4.97 over the last 60 days.

The next year has dropped from $6.76 to $6.20 over the same time period.

Negative movement in earnings estimates like that is why this stock is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

It should be noted that a majority of stocks in the Zacks universe are seeing negative earnings estimate revisions.  That means that the stocks that are seeing small but negative earnings estimate revisions are falling to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).


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