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It's been a pretty great week for Proterra Inc. (NASDAQ:PTRA) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to US$5.90 in the week since its latest second-quarter results. Proterra reported revenues of US$75m, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$0.19 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Proterra's four analysts is for revenues of US$309.5m in 2022, which would reflect a meaningful 17% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 77% to US$0.79 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$300.8m and US$0.77 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although there was a nice uplift to revenue, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.
The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$7.13, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Proterra analyst has a price target of US$10.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Proterra's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 38% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 23% per annum over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Proterra to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.13, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Proterra going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Proterra (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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