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There are three catalysts bound to push stocks higher in 2024, Wall Street strategists say.
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Forecasters are predicting the S&P 500 could notch a new high by the end of next year.
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That's thanks to AI, Fed rate cuts, and a potential soft-landing scenario for the economy.
Wall Street's strategists are betting on stocks moving higher in 2024. That's thanks to a trio of bullish factors coming for the market, which are poised to vault equity prices higher, forecasters say.
Optimism has continued to grow among investors, despite lingering threats of a recession and still-persistent inflation. Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and Société Générale have all predicted the S&P 500 to notch a new all-time-record next year.
1. The Fed will probably cut interest rates
Markets are convinced that the Federal Reserve is set to slash interest rates next year, a development that historically has provided a big boost to stock price.
And those bets on lower rates are looking pretty solid as 2023 winds down.
Inflation is solidly on the downtrend, cooling to 3.2% in October. The labor market, too, appears to be loosening up, with fewer job openings reported and fewer new jobs added in the latest private payroll report. Markets are eagerly watching Friday's non-farm payroll report and next Tuesday's November inflation reading for further clues.
According to ING Economics, the Fed could end up cutting interest rates six times next year as prices continue to fall. That amounts to around 150 basis-points of rate cuts, ING chief international economist James Knightly predicted.
UBS strategists predicted an even-steeper pace of rate cuts next year, with the Fed slashing rates 275 basis-points as it shifts to "full-on accommodation" mode.
2. The US economy will remain strong
By raising interest rates as high as it has, the Fed has given itself the ammunition it needs to stimulate the economy if and when it begins to slow, but it might not need to do much as the economy is looking resilient heading into 2024.
Wall Street has warmed up to the prospective of a soft-landing, with Goldman Sachs dialing back its recession odds to just 15%.
BMO implied there was a less-than-40% probability of a recession, pegging the odds of a soft-landing at 60%.
"Although our expectation for two or three Fed rate cuts in 2024 is less optimistic that the market's current assessment, the directionality matters more than pace as long as a soft-landing prevails," BMO chief investment officer Yung-Yu Ma said in a note on Wednesday.