At halftime, the 2015 stock market is still up for grabs

In order to truly enjoy watching the 2015 stock market, you’d probably need to be a big soccer fan.

With one half of play in the books, the bulls and bears are locked in a scoreless tie. Most of the action has taken place in the middle of the field. Offensive chances were few but thrilling, and firm defense in the face of frequent threats has been valuable.

That is to say, after exactly six months, the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) is almost perfectly flat for the year, having added a trivial five points to end Tuesday at 2063. A holder of the index has earned a half-year’s dividend of about 1% - which isn’t terrible, but looks unimpressive next to healthy gains in overseas stocks.

This year is the closest to the flat line after six months of any year since good recordkeeping began in 1928. And the S&P was contained within a 7.7% high-to-low range the whole time – the third tightest span for a first half ever, following 1993 and 1994.

As is often the case in soccer, preserving a tie can feel like victory when the pressure has been constant. Corporate earnings results and forecasts have come down, so a flat market means stocks have become slightly more expensive based on the coming year’s expected profits.

And the strong dollar, as captured by the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Trust (UUP), has been a headwind that was made no easier for companies by having been somewhat anticipated by investors.

When the year started, economists and the bond market were looking for the first Federal Reserve rate hike in six to nine months. Half a year later, economists and the market are still expecting the first one to come…in six to nine months. On New Year’s Day, Greece and Europe had huge unresolved debt issues, and they still do.

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Widening out the lens on this game, it appears that by the end of 2014 we had entered a phase in which Main Street outperforms Wall Street – a shift that some of us suggested might come. Job creation has remained steady-to-strong, housing activity has picked up and consumer confidence has climbed nicely, even as stocks have stalled. This is a reversal from years in which investors thrived as the average household had a hard time feeling the economic recovery.

Of course, a lot can happen in the second half of a soccer match or a market year. As the indexes are jostled moment to moment by headlines from the Greek standoff, the U.S. stock market has made a tentative show of resiliency.

The big Monday selloff and months of below-surface pressure have left stocks looking pretty oversold, by several short-term measures. July tends to be among the stronger months of the year historically. The corporate credit market – really the linchpin of this whole bull market – has wobbled, but held together well enough so far.

Yet at least the perception of headline risk has risen. The market certainly wants an amicable, if temporary, agreement on Greece’s lifeline before having to sit through a weekend referendum on the terms – but it’s hard to say if that’s likely.

It’s not fully clear what investors want to see out of the U.S. employment numbers tomorrow. A very a strong print would probably make it appear the Fed is in a tough fix, with enough domestic evidence to start hiking but a vulnerable global market backdrop complicating the picture.

A lukewarm number might elicit an all-is-well Goldilocks response from markets that have weathered some significant selling already.

But who can predict for sure? That’s why they play the games.