The bond market is sending an ominous signal about economic growth
It has a better track record than Nouriel Roubini, Paul Krugman, and many—if not most—high-profile economic forecasters. The shape of the yield curve—that is, the arc of US government bond yields across the spectrum of maturities—has a good record of predicting recessions in America since the 1960s. The figure below, taken from a recent presentation…