This Recession Indicator Has Been 100% Accurate Since 1955, and It's Flashing Again

·4 min read
This Recession Indicator Has Been 100% Accurate Since 1955, and It's Flashing Again

The Federal Reserve has aggressively fought inflation over the past year. Policymakers raised interest rates at their fastest pace in four decades, while simultaneously shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, which doubled in size during the pandemic. In fact, Fed officials now expect the U.S. to slip into a mild recession before the end of 2023.