Bull market heads into fourth quarter at highs, but faces hurdles in rising rates and valuations

The S&P 500 hit another record high last week and is ahead by nearly 10 percent for the year, confirming its longer-term uptrend through August and now most of September — historically challenging months. The market during this economic cycle has not tolerated stocks much above this valuation with bond yields in the 3 percent area. If the stock market were football, then entering the fourth quarter it would be the bulls' game to lose, with most of the pregame question marks about their stamina and halftime worries over roster depth answered assertively — in the form of a big lead and few obvious weaknesses.