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Central bank economists say forecasting exchange rates is simple enough to do “on the back of a napkin”

Eshe Nelson
Central bank economists say forecasting exchange rates is simple enough to do “on the back of a napkin”

Economists come under fire when things go wrong, and the main line of attack comes from forecasts gone awry. Forecasting is an integral part of many economists’ jobs, and a valuable tool for public policy. The problem is that forecasts are very often wrong—after all, as the famous quote goes, “It is difficult to make…