Why Fund Managers’ Growth Expectations Hit a Two-Year Low

A net -11% of respondents in the BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) July survey expect faster economic growth over the next 12 months, which is the lowest since February 2016. At the start of 2018, a net 40% of polled fund managers expected faster economic growth in the next year. While it is very difficult to pinpoint a turning point in the economic cycle, the consensus is generally growing that we are in the late stage of the economic cycle, which typically precedes a recession.