Yahoo Finance Earnings Miss: Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. Missed EPS By 56% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVGI), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$232m revenue coming in 4.1% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.09 missed the mark badly, arriving some 56% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Commercial Vehicle Group
Following last week's earnings report, Commercial Vehicle Group's three analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$959.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 45% to US$0.74 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$967.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.83 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
The average price target fell 5.7% to US$11.00, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Commercial Vehicle Group analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Commercial Vehicle Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.7% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Commercial Vehicle Group is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Commercial Vehicle Group. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Commercial Vehicle Group going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Commercial Vehicle Group has 3 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
