Yahoo Finance The Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALNY) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALNY) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. The results overall were pretty good, with revenues of US$494m exceeding expectations and statutory losses coming in at justUS$0.52 per share, some 55% below what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals
After the latest results, the consensus from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' 28 analysts is for revenues of US$1.87b in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 6.7% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to balloon 37% to US$3.59 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.85b and losses of US$4.10 per share in 2024. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a notable improvement in losses per share in particular.
The average price target held steady at US$220, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alnylam Pharmaceuticals at US$395 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$138. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.8% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 44% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$220, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
